[By our readers] The Denilson debate: What Do The Statistics Say?
A famous politician once said that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Despite this, I will try and use some basic statistics to explore one of the most fiercely debated questions on this website: “how good is Denilson?” Or perhaps more accurately: “is Denilson good enough to play regularly for Arsenal?”
About 7 months ago, another blog featured an article in which they used statistics to argue that Denilson was Arsenal’s best player last season, and the player with the most interceptions in the entire league. I will try and use slightly more in-depth data to compare his performances this season with those of 26 other midfielders in the Premier League.
What is Denilson’s role in the team?
Denilson generally plays as a holding midfielder. His job is to break up opposition attacks by tackling, intercepting loose passes and ‘picking up the scraps’. He must also cover the defenders if they join in the attack. As well as this, holding midfielders play an important role in keeping possession by playing short passes to the defenders, fullbacks and other central midfielders. Attacking contributions- shots, goals, assists- are a bonus for someone like Denilson, but not essential to the job.
How do we compare Denilson to other players?
There are two main ways to do this: compare Denilson to other midfield players at Arsenal, or compare him to similar players at other clubs. I prefer to compare with players at other clubs, because for statistics to be useful we have to compare ‘apples with apples’. However, I have also included statistics for Song, whose role is similar to Denilson’s. I think it is easier to compare the effectiveness of players in the same position, than between teammates with different roles.
There are some problems with this. Not all teams play with a ‘holding’ midfielder- Chelsea play a ‘diamond’ and use players like Essien, Mikel and Ballack who are more all-round midfielders. I have nonetheless included such all-round players in the data.
What statistics should we use?
Given the job description for players in the ‘holding role’, we should look at statistics that measure passing (especially short passing), tackling, positional sense, anticipation, work rate and stamina. We can also briefly look at attacking statistics (shots, goals, assists)- but these are not as important.
However, not all these statistics are available on the net. Using www.soccernet.com, the Guardian’s online chalkboard and the Telegraph’s online database, I compiled some data on height, weight, passing, tackles, interceptions, shots, assists and goals. These were all adjusted for the amount of minutes each player spent on the pitch, to avoid bias towards those who had played more.
I have sorted these into three sections:
1. Possession contribution (percentage of passes completed and number of interceptions per 90 minutes).
2. Defensive contribution (height, weight, percentage of tackles won)
3. Attacking contribution (shots, goals and assists per 90 minutes)
I then manipulated the data to get a ‘percentage’ score for each player in each of these sections.
Results
I have included only the final table showing how each player performed in the three categories, and their ‘overall contribution’ across all three. This overall score was weighted with 10% to attacking, 50% to possession and 40% to defensive and physical contributions.
If anyone is interested in seeing the full results, I would be happy to send you the original Excel spreadsheet.
Discussion
These results indicate that Denilson has some areas of great strength, and others where he is very weak. In particular, he is one of the best in the league in the ‘possession’ category, due to his accurate passing and ability to intercept the ball. It would not necessarily be accurate to compare him to players like Fletcher, Ballack, Essien and Mikel. While they might be better players in an all-round sense, they make higher-risk passes, and do not intercept enough passes to be compared.
To be fair to him, we should only compare him to players who are also strong in this area: Song, Mascherano, de Jong, Jenas and Karl Henry of Wolves. With the exception of Jenas, who is an all-round midfielder, these players are all holding midfielders. They do roughly the same things Denilson does best, to about the same level as he does.
So how does Denilson compare? His defensive statistics (tackles, height and weight) are significantly worse than any of the other players mentioned, and in fact are the worst of any midfielder on the list. His attacking contributions are higher than Song and de Jong, about the same as Henry, and much lower than those of Jenas or Mascherano.
Conclusion
Denilson has it tough. His midfield role is perhaps the least glamorous position on a football field, and it is often difficult to appreciate the short passes and interceptions that are his strengths. However, he is not the only one doing the dirty work- most clubs have at least one, and often two, holding players. The statistics above suggest that Denilson’s interceptions and passing are indeed among the best in the league. In fact, they were even better last season.
However, his defensive contribution is the lowest out of any of the 30 listed players. He wins the lowest percentage of tackles, and at 68kg is the lightest player on the list. Similarly, his attacking contribution is in the bottom third.
The question then becomes: is this good enough? The obvious answer is “no”. Arsenal is an established top-four club with title aspirations, and it seems that the side must have “top-class” players to compete. While Denilson’s short passing and interceptions are very good, he has serious defects as a defensive midfielder. However, Denilson is young and will improve his tackling and strength with experience and conditioning. He has a role to play in Arsenal, but maybe not a permanent role in the starting line-up.
So what can we say for sure? Statistics do show that at least some of the players mentioned above can do Denilson’s ‘fetching’ job as well as he does, while offering more of a defensive presence and attacking threat. Moreover, Denilson is not significantly ‘better’ overall than similar players in teams stuck in mid-table or relegation trouble. For someone who last year played the most minutes for the club, and is an automatic starter when fit this year, fans can expect more.
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First? Bang. Anyway interesting article but the subject matter is one i’ve seen many times and yes, he aint good enough for an automatic starting place.
well i have to admire for this great work that u have donne but i think it is very clear that this player can not play in the first team of arsenal fc. Let me say something about Cana, i don’t want to tolk about the statistics that u have put here,simply cos if we take statistics then Andray Arshavin will not be such a special player,he is nothing in terms of possesion or anythink els,he is special only because he does something special in one or two moments during the game.so let me turn to Cana cos there were some tolks about him coming to us.he is albanian as i am, and i have heard him in our tv station saying he has good relation with Arsen Wenger and Arsen has told him he has to tell him when he deside to leave France.Now u might think i am tolking for cos he is albanian but that’s not true,Loric Cana is a tipical holding midfilder,a strong one that can easily play in the EPL as he is playing and has taken man of the match title many times.he is very strong as i said and there is no need to compare him with our Denilson cos our player can not be a holding midfilder his role in the pitch is, take the ball from cesc song or clishy and pass it as soon as he can to someone els near to him,that is all what he gives to our game.so Cana we know what is his role in the team what he can brings to us, at least a race for that place for Song.His price is not more than 10 m.and if we all say we need DM,lets get this albanian cos he has a great heart he gives everything on the pitch, he is a fighter.the only problem with him is, he gets many yellow carts.(again sory if my english is not good,that’s cos i don’t practis it so much).
Thanks for those statistic it was clear to me from the Hull game last season that he was way too light weight for the EPL, I’m sorry for the guy because he does try his best but he is just not equipped to do the job given to him.
Wenger needs to take a look back at our glory years and see the attributes of players of Petti, veria, Palour, Grimmand, gilbert, Adams, ect..they were men not boys (strengh, power. speed, height, passers, tacklers & headers of the ball, guys that weren’t affraid to shoot the ball) untill then its gonna be very hard for us to return to the winner’s circle. The present crop of player are too small, weak & inexperince , they cannot counterack the physical play of the EPL. The quality is here in aboundance but we are short of steel and experince to guide through they talent, until then it wil be a total waste. Wenger has lost his way
Good stuff, Ben! Keep it coming.
Your take is spot on. I’d be interested in the same stats breakdown for the Arsenal holding midfielders Song and Diaby. No doubt Denilson would rank lowest. For his lack of size Denilson does have some steel in his play with good technique and passing game to his credit. His best asset may be his strong distance shooting with little back lift in his shot. Perhaps he should take free kicks during RvP’s absence. At present Denilson seems best suited as Song’s back-up.
Ideal Arsenal backfield: Sagna – Gallas – Vermaelen – Clichy
Ideal Arsenal midfield : Fabregas – Song – Diaby
Ideal Arsenal attack: Arshavin – RvP/Bendtner – Nasri
Keep the stats coming. Keep the talk going.
I would like to see the whole data instead of weighted ones.
If you leave your email I can send you the spreadsheet.
Denilson has great potential but at this stage has not yet proved it.Therefore cannot be counted upon as a regular starter.Wenger seems to have planned on “integrating” him this season but that has backfired due to the back injury.I think Denilson will “step up to the plate” given a good run against the lower teams in EPL.He definately has the “Gilberto” quality and perhaps a little bit more.As for Cana,has no imagination at all,no contest.
mate i said denilson for me, should not be in our 11 stronge team, as a sub.he is ok.as for Cana,has no imagjination,ok tell me where is the Denilson imagination, till now i havn’t seen it.if we consider him a DM hi is nowhere near and he whll never be.
Wonder why did you come up with this idea and make us believe that Danilson isn’t worth the first team i disagree totally i think he is a wonderful little player in need of strength and belief and not to stumble on your analysis
is it his natural talent does he like this position DM
For me the first team is varmelin song danilson fabergas and nasri vpr my argument here is we are not a big club where did we get this idea from we don’t have a complete 22 players if we were a big club we would have 47 players there for the picking I think mr Wanger is in the process of putting it together it is a hard job and his job is on continuous and he would love to see the team win but he has to seat the storm and wait for all to reveal i also believe we need 5 more players to secure a trio and on a more realistic view of the way they have been playing i believe they don’t believe in themselves i think that is the problem vela should be out on the field every day Danilson to practising shots he should come in with more goals nasri capabilities are huge i was so happy when he signed for Arsenal i regard him as the zedan he has that capability he needs to practise his shots eboue to stop diving as i like his passé but also he can’t finish our own finisher for the moment is archivan Galas have to be confident in defence and stay close to alumina and aluminia should be heat with balls from close range and get him to catch them i would have him try to catch 2 balls at the same time at times i love him especially when he takes control but sometimes oh dear god i could hit him with an egg just so he gets his act together injury and out from form and our lazy approach and the hype that our opponents get out from us it is what is causing us to lack
They need to look at the mirror and decide who are they and then come straight to us and tell us wither they are winners or losers probably there is some among us that believe if we were put on the pitch we would do a better job and that’s the issue here are they the shining stars on the pitch
come on Arsenal
Great contribution. Anyone else note that Song was the best player on the weighted contribution? I maintain that he’s been the best of the big 4 holding midfielders this year. Haven’t seen enough of Petrov, De Jong or Cana to compare.
Cana man of the match in 8 games, even in that win against us he was picked as one of the best.what more can u expect from holding player.
All i can say is that Arsenal’s midfied is more solid when Denilson is playing than when Diaby or Ramsey is filling in for him.Gooners have always underrated this guy but his contribution to Arsenal’s midfield is immense.You could clearly see that his presence was missed during the Burnley game.And for the guy talking about Cana,he left Marseille last season and is with Sunderland now so any rumous about him coming to Arsenal is false.Wenger wanted him at some point but was denied work permit.
I think you’re right in that sense, because neither Ramsey or Diaby are really holding midfielders. But that doesn’t mean that Denilson is ‘good’, simply that he is a better holding midfielder than either of those two players.
My argument is that- at this point in time- he is a fairly average holding midfielder compared to others in the Premier League.
Hi Guys,
I did a small research , and this is the comparison between Song and Denilson, I do not really see much of a difference between them. I just took the games where they have both
played just to eliminate some other differences. The source was guardian chalk talk.
Denilson
PS PM IN IOH TK TS TOH CL FKC COH FKW WNH
lpool- 49 6 7 6 11 9 6 2 2 2 4 2
evert- 44 1 3 1 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1
Manu- 41 6 4 2 5 1 1 0 1 1 3 2
Manc- 36 4 2 2 7 4 3 0 2 1 2 0
Chel- 54 7 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 2 2
#ports- 77 1 3 2 4 3 3 0 4 1 1 2
#stoke- 64 3 1 0 8 3 1 0 1 1 1 1
—————————————————-
Total 224 24 19 13 27 18 12 2 7 4 12 7
—————————————————
After
Weightage 32 30 11 19
89.3% 66.67%
Song
PS PM IN IOH TK TS TOH CL FKC COH FKW WNH
lpool- 38 11 4 4 3 1 1 1 4 3 4 2
chel- 23 3 0 0 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 0
evert- 41 3 5 4 9 8 6 3 3 1 2 1
manu- 43 5 7 6 8 6 4 0 3 2 2 1
manc- 45 3 0 0 8 6 6 1 1 1 2 0
stoke-
ports-
—————————————————-
Total 190 25 16 14 30 23 19 6 12 7 10 4
—————————————————-
After
Weightage 30 42 19 14
86.9% 76%
Pass completion % Tackles Won Interceptions Free kick Conceded / Won
Denilson 89.3% 30 32 11 19
Song 86.9% 42 30 19 14
Song is much stronger in tackles, though the absolute numbers are not far (23/18).
In interception they are almost par.
Song concedes more free kicks per game.
Denilson make 6 more passes per game than Song while maintaining a high pass
percentage of 89.3% 3% more than Song lets say that means more involved.
While all this he has 2 goals i think atleast 1 assist.
When Song is not playing he is more involved (very high number of passes)
in those games.
I looked at Essien stats it is not much better than Denilson or Song.
It is unfair to give weightage to weight and height , you need that for
tackling successfully if you include tackle stats , then height and weight
are totally irrelevant.
Over all they are not very far and it is unfair to tell Denilson is the worst DM in league.
Hi there,
I don’t recall saying Denilson is the worst defensive midfielder in the league- no amount of statistics can answer that question. And personally I don’t think he is ‘the worst’, only around about average. However, Denilson’s defensive statistics have been the worst out of any of the midfielders I looked at. That means he misses the most tackles, and is the lightest player out of the 27 I looked at.
You may say that his height and weight are irrelevant- I disagree (e.g. for headers and shielding the ball), but even if we do disregard those factors, his tackling is still the worst out of any of the players on the list. I think that with conditioning (i.e. a fair bit of gym work) and experience, Denilson can improve this part of his game and become a very good player. At the moment, however, these are extremely weak parts of his game.
Also your statistics are inaccurate- Denilson has one assist and one goal so far. Essien’s attacking involvement is significantly higher than Denilson’s, with three goals (admittedly in more games). In fact their statistics are very different in almost every respect, so it’s difficult to compare them at all.
The argument that I made was that some players (including Song) do everything pretty much as well as Denilson, and are significantly better in areas that he is weak in. I think that still stands.
Hmm , Challenged headers should be considered as tackles no ? Denilson has 1 league goal and CL goal so totallly 2 goals. considering he played very less number of matches this year. And one more interesting thing i noticed is that we do really have to play DMs one has to be slightly front and in left other one slightly back and on the right hand side. We simply do not have any one as good as Denilson to replace in this area.
Denilson handles left side of mid field and song on the right slightly holding back. Whoever replaces Denilson is going to give the stability to the team. Songs game is always tilted towards right.
*whoever replaces Denilson is “not” going to give the stability.
Headers should definitely be counted, but I’m just using the statistics available to me. There is no data for headers, unfortunately. And I was only using EPL data, because that’s what is available to me. Again, I agree that neither Ramsey or Diaby is able to provide much solidity- but I don’t think Denilson’s contribution is good enough to justify his place in the team.
That means that either Arsenal need to ‘tweak’ their tactics to rely on only one holding midfielder (with everyone else contributing, rather like Chelsea), or they need to look outside the current squad.
I did a small research between Cesc,Gerrard,Lampard,Carrick and even though our Cesc is the smallest he still came out top in all weighted categories,but we should really get rid as you quote with Denilson he is only lightweight,size isnt everything i thought your partner would have told you that !
Hi Gary,
You’re misrepresenting my argument. Where exactly am I using Denilson’s size as a reason to ‘get rid of him’? As I mentioned before, size isn’t that important a factor (although much more important for someone in Denilson’s position than for Fabregas). However, tackling ability is extremely important- and that is where Denilson performs poorly.
The point of this exercise was to look at the things Denilson does well- intercepting and short passing- and finding opponents who did these things roughly as well as he does. From this point, I compared him as an attacking player, and as a defensive player. There was more weighting given to the defensive side of things, because as a holding midfielder that is important.
So your analogy with Cesc is a poor one. If Cesc comes out on top in the weighted data, that indicates he’s well worth his place in the side. But Denilson does not come out on top, and in fact is just below the middle- regardless of size.
Denislon is fighting RELEGATION at the moment with S.DIAO
Defence & physial and Average contribution clearly shows that Denilson ins’t ready yet to start for arsenal.Aren’t these stats the main attributes for a SO CALLED DEFENSIVE MID????
Once again I commend you on your research and analysis.
Arsene seems quite sold on Denilson as a long term (and short term) member of the first team. If this remains true, would he buy another CM in January or next summer? I think the answer to this question is only if an Arshavin type situation repeats itself. By that I mean, an exceptional player comes on the market because of a number of factors forcing his price down toward 12-15 m; this player is keen to join Arsenal; and a deal can be agreed. I think it’s self evident that Arsene won’t buy an “expensive” player unless they’re exceptional (see Sagna and Arsha).
If this holds true, the player who best fits this mould must be Yaya Toure. He wants first team football, he’s expressed a desire to play in England, he’s got proven quality in midfield, he’s an exceptional 1.90 cm, 90 kg talent of 26 years of age.
If he came in, Denilson (or even Song, though he would feel hard done by) couldn’t complain about ceding their spot to a fit and firing Yaya in CM, leaving Nasri to play alongside Cesc, or Den or Song if playing away or against a top 4 team.
However, I think the far more likely scenario is that Arsene doesn’t strengthen in January or indeed in Summer.
I think there has been a mis-representation. Denilson said two years ago that ‘Cesc is playing my number’. Therefore, clearly Denilson is only being turned into a holding midfielder, therefore its not his problem if he does not do exactly like other holding midfielders. When our first team is full, Denilson plays as a holding midfielder, but in a different sort of way. He’s more offensive than Song, when he gets the ball, he distributes it to Cesc who then directs the game. Denilson gives you hard work, in fact I think we might not have lost the two points at Barnley had Denilson been there, because he gives you more fight that Diaby.
I will repeat it this once, Denilson will be a great player very soon. You will see
Lastly, last season around this time, Cesc was sick, but Arsenal was not beaten in around 12 or 13 games without the captain. At that time Denilson played the Cesc role, and if you went back and checked he was almost always involved in most of our goals. So the problem is Wengers.
Your whole article is based on the ASSUMPTION that Denilson is a HOLDING midfeilder, what if he wasn’t? then all your statistical analysis becomes meaningless. In the first game of the season Denilson started supporting Cesc in the middle, with Song “Holding”, that is the norm, only when Song doesn’t play, Denilson takes up that position, Denilson is NOT a holding midfielder, he is an attacking midlfielder who is being asked to be a bit defensive in his game, something which he is trying to learn to do. So on that assumption, we have a 21-year old boy, playing a crucial role in the PREMIER LEAGUE, for one of the biggest teams in the League, in a role that he is having to learn to do, and his team are 3rd in the league, if we were Everton and in this position with Denilson, he would be regarded as a revelation! Show me another midlfield player of Denilson’s age (and price) who plays in a crucial role in one of the biggest teams in Europe, anyone? no thought so. So guys just give him a break.
As above, his attacking contributions aren’t good enough to justify his place in the team if we assume he’s not doing a defensive job. He is a holding midfielder, albeit one with a slightly different job to Song. If he’s not a holding midfielder, then what exactly does he do?
The point my statistics are meant to make is that he wouldn’t be regarded as a revelation at other clubs- he would be regarded as about average. And again, Arsenal are attempting to challenge for the title- you would expect Denilson to be better than players in other teams. He clearly is not. Again, I’m not arguing that he’s a bad player, rather that at the moment he’s not good enough to be an automatic starter.
And there is no question of age or price- simply whether he is good enough to justify starting week in, week out. Nothing else is relevant. I think the statistics I’ve shown suggest that he’s around average for the EPL, which doesn’t seem to be as spectacular as you’re making out.
I do get your point Ben, and fair play for making it, but my argument was simply that you were basing your analysis on an assumption of his position. You are right in that you can’t judge a player based on selective statistics, but that is exactly what you did too.
My argument was that, he may not have shown to be that great, but (if I’m not biased – and that’s no reference to you), I could see that he ain’t that bad either. I say this because in the context of the “team”, rather than him as an individual player, it seems to work, Denilson is not (yet at least), a player that can influence a game, we have other players that do that like Fabregas or Arshavin, or RvP, but he is a player that helps the “team” move along in a game, and sometimes, I believe (and thats very hard to prove), is that someones contribution is not that apparent, but when you take the whole game into context, you can deduce that a player may have played his part in that. Denilson’s success (or failure, depending on how one sees it) can be aligned to Arsenal’s, we have been a team over the last 3/4 years in transition/development, in Denilson’s case development, and I’m sure even the most sceptic fans can see that over these years, this team IS getting better and closer, and that goes for Denilson too. He’s not the only one either, the majority of this team have been in “development”, that’s why I think, he does get a bit too much scrutiny and stick, and his positives then get overlooked.
I do agree with you when you say he’s not a bad player and that he plays an important role- the ‘boring’ job he does (intercepting, short passing) may look easy, but it’s a very important to the team.
The thing is, his weakness in the challenge is something that does have to be sorted out before he can be seen as a ‘good’ player. You simply can’t be as weak as he is in that area, given that his role is largely defensive.
I don’t think my statistics were unfair on him, either. I weighted the results towards the areas where he is strongest (possession), so even if you were comparing him to others as a more all-round midfielder you’d get similar results.
And I agree that he is getting better, but I think that you’ll acknowledge that it’s difficult to challenge for the title when you’ve got someone who’s ‘not bad’ playing week-in, week-out. Maybe in the future he’ll be good enough to do that, but the stats do show he’s not yet at the required level.
Don’t forget the positive though- Song is clearly cleaning up this year!
interesting article…maybe later you will make one about diaby and bendmer cause they are in the same position as denilson…personnaly I believe they aren’t good for arsenal…
and maybe u can fax this to wenger
It’s hard to do anything with Diaby, because his problems can’t really be measured by statistics (loss of concentration, catastrophic own goals). I’ll maybe do something similar for each of the players at the end of the season.
The reason I focused on Denilson is that a lot of his advocates focus on statistics, but generally use them poorly. His passing and interception statistics are indeed impressive, but there are players who do this job as well as him and contribute more besides.
Great article!
Only problem i have is, and I quote-
However, Denilson is young and will improve his tackling and strength with experience and conditioning. He has a role to play in Arsenal, but maybe not a permanent role in the starting line-up.
We’ve been waiting FIVE years, every season we hear “This is our year” yet win nothing.
I wish I was in a job in which I was richly rewarded for bring mediocre, at best, and was rewarded for my efforts with a new contract…
Hi Roy,
I do think Denilson will improve- and it’s fairly easy to see how this could happen. I agree that potential is not enough- you need to be able to do the business in the present. That’s why I don’t think Denilson should play such a central role at the present. If he does improve to the point where he offers enough, then that’s when he should be an automatic first choice.
The other thing to remember is that other teams will not ’stand still’ either. For example, Chelsea will probably sign Sergio Aguero in the next few months and have Gael Kakuta pushing for a first-team spot. Just because Arsenal’s young players will improve does not mean they will be better than their rivals in the future.
Well said Ben. It seems great manager AW clearly is, he wil never understand that to stat at the top you need to invest.
Yaya Toure 26
Akinfeev 23
David Villa 26 (I think)
My point is there are plenty of young experienced players out there and we should buy some!
Denilson is good… Arsenal fans would find another name to pick on if Denilson had been superb recently. Not too long ago even Arshavin got some of the heat… people got bored of dissing Abou-Diaby… and picking on Bendtner is so “last season” even though he hasn’t really changed all that much….
Denilson will have his day of praising…
Good thing we didn’t keep L.Diarra. He would have looked terrible with the criteria you included.
Hi Matt,
He actually would have looked alright. I used height and weight to get a BMI measurement as a ‘physical stature’ proxy. Yes Diarra is short but he’s also powerful. He is short (173cm), but 68kg (i.e. the same as Denilson). Hence his BMI is 68/1.73^2 = 22.72, whereas Denilson’s is 68/1.80^2 = 20.99. So Diarra would have done just fine.
Also, the thing that gets Denilson is not his physical statistics, but the fact that his tackling is poor. I don’t see how you can blame the data for that.
I actually spent a fair amount of time developing these parameters and indexes to make the comparisons fair, so if you do want to have a look at them yourself I can send you the spreadsheets. If you want, you can leave out the physical component. That won’t change the fact that Denilson has serious deficiencies as a midfield player, and this will still be seen in the data.
Denilson has played 7 games and only finished 5 of them… How can you compare that to players who have got well into the season playing up to 17 games? Denilson is definitely considered as a central midfielder as he sits further up than Song behind Fabregas. You only have to watch a game to see this. If you played Fabregas in Denilson’s role then he would put in similar stats to Denilson… I don’t understand why weight and height are in the equation? Vermaelen wins more headers then anyone else in our team, he is not the tallest so if you used the same calculations to measure Vermaelen as a defender compared to other taller players, then they will come out on top. This is obviously not a very fair reflection. Similarly, Diaby is very tall but wins very few headers. I have never been a huge fan of Denilson and I would prefer Toulalan in the central midfielder role, but would you honestly prefer to play jenas, parker, huddlestone, Etuhu, Ferguson or Petrov in our central midfield? Of course not. None of these players compare to Denilson if you actually watched a game. Sorry if this seems harsh but it is bias like this from Arsenal fans that make our players doubt themselves. The sad part is that if Denilson was at United, the fans would support him 100% because he is a loyal, hardworking, young, great passer of the ball with loads of talent. Why can’t we just enjoy watching our team without trying to prove that we know better than Wenger? Sorry but you are right, This is an example of using statistics to manipulate peoples opinions of a player. I hope Denilson starts tomorrow as we will have direct comparisons between Song, Diaby and Denilson. Albeit in 3 different positions so we will not compare their stats.
Hi Philip,
I don’t think this is necessarily true. Players at big clubs tend to get a lot of stick unless they are pulling their weight. Think Lucas at Liverpool, or Fletcher at Manchester United a few seasons ago. Fletcher is also proof that if such players improve, they can win over the fans.
As for comparing Denilson to players who have played more, all the statistics have been corrected for minutes played. I agree that this means Denilson may have been a bit rusty due to lack of game time, but I don’t see how it would affect his tackling ability, which is the pretty much the only reason he doesn’t do well in the analysis. Similarly, someone like Jenas has played only slightly more minutes than Denilson (including many as a sub) and yet outperforms him in every single area.
I actually did the numbers for Fabregas as well, and he performed significantly better than Denilson both defensive and attacking contributions. His interceptions and passing stats are not as impressive, of course. But overall he performed better.
I think I should clarify how height and weight were used: I didn’t use them separately, but rather to get a BMI measurement. This is important in working out physical stature, for holding the ball up, and for a general measure of ‘pound for pound strength’. Imperfect I know, but it’s the best I can do with the resources available to me.
As for ‘would I honestly prefer’… I would say that Petrov and Jenas would, at this point in time, certainly offer more than Denilson. But that’s only what I think. I don’t think you can use the argument ‘if you just watched the game’, because there are a lot of people who watch games, and they seem to agree about very little.
As for manipulating the statistics to make Denilson look bad, I really haven’t. I’ve weighted it in favour of the things he’s best at. I can’t do much about the fact that he is a poor tackler. Like I’ve said before, his role IS different to that of Song, but the statistics (not the overall ratings, ignore those) are meant to show that there are players who can do what he does best, and then do more besides.
That nails it Phillip…. Thank you very much!!
Very interesting article. Can you do the stats for Diaby?
I might do it at the end of December, and again at the end of the season.
Maybe next time I will do something similar for other positions as well. I think I’ll try and make it a little more transparent next time though, as some readers seem to think I’ve somehow twisted the statistics to pick on Denilson.