In reply to Erik Ian Larsen: The final nail in Barcelona’s coffin

As regards Barca’s finances, the fact that the club has had to take a loan to pay its players is, by any objective standard, not a good sign. But, to be fair, comparisons to Leeds are not apt.

Barca has an international base of support that, at times, has produced more income the club than that of any other club. That base of support isn’t going to go away, although the club’s income may fluctuate from year to year. So, Barcelona is always going to be able to maintain a certain level of competitiveness with the other top clubs of the world, even if a financial crisis does bite into the club’s income (which will happen as fiscal controls reduce the expendable income of Spanish citizens). Especially under the new FIFA/UEFA rules governing club spending, which actually favor a high-income clubs like Barca and Arsenal to the detriment of clubs like Citeh and Chelski, which have relied on infusions of cash from rich owners (in the form of loans that are then written off by the owners).

Further, taking advantage of the current low interest rates to restructure its debt before financial restrictions in Spain tighten credit and raise interest rates (which eventually will come with tightened credit) is good business on Barca’s part. If the club has been able to lock in those low interest rates, that will prove advantageous in the long term. But, while it will make the debt more manageable, it does nothing to reduce the club’s debt or put it in a better position to borrow in the future.

The problem for Barca is that, while bringing in record income for a club, according to Rosell, it was only able to turn a 9 million profit last year. With a debt of 450 million, that’s not good. Even if the club can service its debt now, at some point, even if FIFA/UEFA do not force it to do so, Barca will have to begin to pay down that debt. And, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that it simply won’t be able to do that and continue to buy and pay players the way that it has been.

If Barca only turned a profit of 9 million when it brought in a record income, what will the club do if the financial crisis in Spain reduces its income because its Spanish supporters cannot afford to spend as much of their incomes on the team and/or it receives less for its TV rights? Income from its international base of supporters will keep the club from failing in the way that Leeds failed, but the club will be forced to do some serious belt-tightening.

Winning titles is expensive. Which is why, in all sports, even the top or best-run teams go through cycles of winning and rebuilding as their top players demand more money because they have been winners, get older and ultimately have to be replaced by younger and/or cheaper players. The time that it takes for a top club to go through this cycle not only depends on its ability to identify and acquire new talent, but on its financial condition and ability to pay for the new players that it acquires. Maintaining competitive excellence is extremely difficult to do in the best financial conditions, it is much more difficult to do when a club must deal with financial constraints.

Arsenal and ManU are good examples of how difficult maintaining competitive excellence can be when the financial circumstances are not ideal. Both are very well-run clubs, with superb managers and plenty of income. Yet, after going through runs when they were able to win titles, both have fallen back a bit as they have had to deal with changes in their financial fortunes. As every Arsenal supporter well knows, the club had to deal off many of its stars and promising players and rely on younger, cheaper players rather than bring in established veterans, as it dealt with the costs of the move from Highbury to the Emirates. The result has been five years without winning any silverware. ManU challenged for titles, but fell back a bit last year as it began to deal with the consequences of its growing financial difficulties and those of its owners, selling off Ronaldo for a king’s ransom and yet not really being able to replace him. Despite the fact that ManU has as great or perhaps even a greater income as Barca, a look at their roster indicates that ManU has also begun the transition to a younger, less expensive roster as well.

With its debt and facing the prospect of tougher financial times in Spain, the wheel of fortune in this cycle of winning and rebuilding will undoubtedly continue to spin for Barca just as it did for Arsenal and ManU as well. That does not mean that its downfall is immediately imminent, but it will come as the players who make up the core of its team now age: Puyol, Pique, Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets. In an effort to try to maintain its exellence, Barca has been trying to buy players who can help the club win now, but also maintain its winning ways in the future when age will diminish some of its current stars and the financial situation may not be as good. The attempt to secure Fabregas’ services now, by playing on his desire to return to the club at some point, is an important part of its efforts.

Right now, Barca really doesn’t need Cesc. He would be nothing more than a super-substitute for them, playing, at most, 50% of the time. But, because of that, they can claim that he really isn’t worth more than the 30-35 million they can afford to offer. However, while Cesc would be just a super-sub for Barca now, he would be the perfect player to step in and take over from either Xavi or Iniesta in a couple of years as they get older and move past the prime of their careers. Buying Cesc now, for a cheaper price than he will cost in two years when he enters his prime, is not only a good investment for Barca, but good business for them as well.

But, it would be bad–horribly bad–business not just for Arsenal, but for Fabregas, himself, if Arsenal were to sell Cesc to Barca for that price now.

The way that the Arsenal club is structured now, the offense goes through Fabregas. He is the field general and its star. With Ramsey not fully “blooded” yet and likely out until Christmas, Arsenal would have no one truly able to replace Cesc as the focal point of the offense, even if A.Wenger were able to buy Gourcuff with the funds from selling Fabregas to Barca. In a year, Ramsey and Wilshere will be available to help ease Gourcuff into the EPL and Wenger will be in a better position to restructure the Arsenal offense if necessary. With Cesc in the lineup this year and a revamped and strengthened defense, Arsenal has a chance to make a run at a title. Doing so would vindicate the faith that Wenger has had to put in his youngsters and give the club a core of winning players to carry on after Cesc moves on to Barca in a year or two.

Selling Fabregas to Barca now would make it far more difficult for Arsenal to win a title this year in a much tougher and more competitive EPL. For Arsenal, Fabregas, as their field general, is worth at least 60 million this year, if not more. Were Arsenal to win a title this year with Cesc as its leader, that would only serve to confirm that he is worth that much in the transfer market. So, why sell him to Barca at a bargain price now, when there’s a real possiblity that Arsenal can get more for him in a year or two? It simply wouldn’t make sense for Arsenal to sell Fabregas to Barca at the price that Barca is offering right now.

And, for Cesc, moving to Barca this year would truly be madness–utter stupidity. As the captain and focal point of the Arsenal club, he has become a star in the game. Sitting on the bench half of the time for Barca over the next couple of years while Xavi and Iniesta are at the top of their games, not only will Cesc’s stardom begin to fade, but his game will likely stagnate, if not begin to suffer. But, if he stays at Arsenal, Cesc will continue to be a star and become an even better player as he moves towards the prime of his career. If he can win a title at Arsenal this year or next, he would be established, world-wide, as one of the best players and biggest stars in the game.

Not only could he then move to Barca as a hero and potential saviour of the club’s excellence, but he would command a transfer fee of at least 50-80 million. Which would very nearly double the amount that he would get from making that move. It would be absolutely foolish for Cesc to give up the fame, fortune and stardom that he has a chance to obtain by staying at Arsenal for the next year or two to go sit on the bench at Barca until Xavi and/or Iniesta start to fade as players. It would be an utter waste.

But, throughout history men have been known to do stupid things and Fabregas may end up forcing Arsenal to sell him to Barca at a bargain price. That won’t be good for Arsenal’s chances this season, but the club will be able to recover and still may be able to challenge for a title if it uses the money it gets from selling Cesc to buy Ozil or Gourcuff and perhaps adds Joe Cole.

The fact is that Arsene Wenger has kept Arsenal competitive, even while rebuilding the club under serious financial constraints. With the club on the verge of eliminating its debt and the young talent that it has been stockpiling and developing, the club isn’t far from being able to win some of the silverware that has eluded it for the last five years. As the financial constraints that FIFA/UEFA are putting in place begin to take hold, Arsenal’s financial position in relation to the other top clubs will only become stronger as those clubs find their ability to make moves in the transfer market is more restricted. Which will allow Arsenal not only to add the veteran players that it needs to achieve competitive excellence again, but also to continue attracting top young prospects into its Academy.

While the current Arsenal squad is built around a core of players that have come through its Academy, there are already prospects who are in, entering or who coming from the Academy who have the potential to further strengthen this core even as Arsenal’s ability to make moves in the transfer market gets stronger over the next couple of years.

Because of what A.Wenger and the Board have managed to do over the past few years, Arsenal is well positioned to move to the top of the cycle of winning and rebuilding and maintain its position there. All Arsenal fans should appreciate that.

As for those who are concerned about the Board’s decisions and the future direction of the club, in my opinion, all Arsenal fans should be concerned about these things. We may disagree at times, but there is no need for us to be disagreeable or for recriminations one way or the other. We should all want what’s best for the club and pay attention to what the Board is doing to insure that they act in the best interests of the continued survival and competitive excellence of the club. And, if moves are made that threaten the survival of the club, then we should all unite to prevent those steps from coming to fruition. That, I hope we can all agree on.